Simple Auto-Profit Spots to boost your Winrate

“Know your oponnent and you don’t need cards” Habit – 2020 WSOP Main-Event Champion, 2nd Poker-Boom Initiator and 47th President of the United States

Todays Poker Situation

As Poker is getting tougher and tougher, even in the Microstakes, 
it's getting more important to stop missing spots where alot of money 
can be made.
The Micro-Stakes-Cashgame actually is the best place to be to use the 
following Auto-Profit-Spots (AP). The Regs are still heavily unbalanced 
and won't play back at you enough. In fact, if they love folding in 
certain Spots, they will  just do so over and over again without wasting
a thought about it, unless you are overdoing it.

Use the following Situations to your favor for an additional 2-3 bb/100 
boost of your Winrate!

profit-2

Explanation of Auto-Profit

Auto-Profit is an Exploit against Oponnents who fold to much in certain 
spots. It makes certain plays profitable in the long run even by 
ignoring the Strenght of our hand completetly.
 
If we had 0% Equity (which is very rare) Auto-Profit plays would still
be profitable!

Preflop Steal from Late Position

thief

Your Range is already doing the work? It is at it widest on the Button
or in the Small-Blind? Good! 
But why would you miss a profitable Spot with a hand that is not in your
Range? Here is an example.
button-steal
no this is not my HUD,! I just put all the numbers in I needed for this Blogpost
We are on the Button, it is folded to us and we have 2 guys who love
to fold in the Blinds. 
We have a crappy hand that usually is not in our range (hopefully) 
yet do we find a reason to raise here? Let's try to figure out if a 
Raise of 2,5 bigblinds would be good in this spot!


Here is the math required for this spot:

Formula:   
Fold-Equity we need for AP:    Betsize / (Betsize + Potsize)
Fold-Equity we have:           Fold-To-Steal-SB*Fold-To-Steal-BB

In our case:
Fold-Equity we need :         2,5 / (2,5+0,5+1) = 0,625 = 62,5%
Fold-Equity we have :         86% * 76%  = 65,4%


If the "Fold-Equity we have" is higher than the "Fold-Equity we 
need" it is Auto-Profit when we Raise!

So to be clear! Because this is important! We can raise in this 
spot, if we get called and have to give up 100% of the time on the 
flop we are still profitable! If we get 3-bet Preflop, it does not 
matter, too.
We can fold 100% of the time and still be profitable!!!
The playable Flops we get, or the nuts we flop from time to time is
just an additional bonus!

So don't get mad when your Auto-Profit Raise-First-In didn't work 
this time!
Another example that is even more obvious.

sb-steal

VPIP BB.jpg

Here we are in the Small-Blind and again it is folded to us. Only the
player in the Big-Blind is left to act behind us. He, again, loves to 
fold. For this spot I would check at least 2 numbers to figure out if I
can Raise profitably. "Fold-to-Steal" and his "VPIP" for the Big-Blind. 
You can take the secure line and only raise if both of them fit the 
requirements. 
Let's RFI for 3 bbs and look at the math again!

Math:
Fold Equity we need:  2.5 / (2.5+1.5) = 62,5%
Fold Equity we have:  between 82% and 78%

Again our Raise is very very profitable in this spot!

Preflop 3-Bet

3bet-bb-vs-co

In this Spot we are in the Big-Blind and face a CO (Cut Off) 
Open-Raise. Button and Small-Blind fold and it is up to us to decide 
what is the best line against the CO-Raise-First-In. Call, fold or
3-Bet! 
Because we have a Trash-Hand and we will be out of Position for the 
rest of the hand, calling is the worst of the 3 possible options. 
Folding is totally fine in this spot! But considering his high 
"Fold to 3-Bet Percentage" let's look at the math again if we can 
profitably 3-Bet here for instant Auto-Profit!
Our 3-Bet size would be 9bb!

Fold Equity we need:         8 / (8+3+1,5) = 0,64 = 64%
Fold Equity we have:         74%

In this case our 3-Bet is very reasonable and we have an Auto-Profit 
situation! Additionally Villain doesn't 4-Bet anything but the nuts 
so our hand is easy to play against this kind of Oponnent. 
If we get 4-Bet we can easily find the Fold-Button with a good feeling,
because we just folded to a very strong Hand. If we see a flop our hand 
is very easy to play aswell. Even tho we have to check/fold alot of the
times on the Flop or the Turn.
Remember!
We already made a +EV play so the few Flops we nail are just a great 
bonus again!


TIP for even more +EV: 
I'm not advocating to 3-Bet 84o alot in this spot. I wouldn't do it 
myself! This is just as an example to show that the actual Hand 
doesn't really matter!
 
Still since it is even more profitable if we hold some Equity when 
we get called, I would reduce my Range to something like 
Suited-Connectors or Suited-One-Gapper and Blockers.
(for example A4o, KT)

C-Bet (any street)

Our mighty formula also works on the Flop! Not tired of math yet? 
Great lets jump in! Just kidding! 
It comes in very handy to know the Fold Equity we need for a few 
common Bet-Sizes which are as followed:

Fold Equity we need:         1/2 pot = 33%
                             2/3 pot = 40%
                             3/4 pot = 43%
                                 pot = 50%

Fold Equity we have:         whatever Villains
                             Fold-To-CBet(Flop/Turn/River)-Percentage is


C-Bets in general are very profitable especially in Position. 
Even the worst of Fish in the Micros got it by now, that playing 
Out of Position sucks! Don't C-Bet with Air against people who hate 
to fold and only are in for the "One-Time Baby!!!" Hero-Call.
While I can comfortably suggest to fire a C-Bet on pretty much any Flop 
that hits your Range better than the Villain's Range, (against Regs) 
I'd suggest to only keep firing additional bullets when u have some 
Equity (Gutshot, Flushdraw or even Overcards) on the Turn, or if you find
another reasonable reason to keep the pressure on.
Just know your Oponnent! Some people will almost always call your 
"Flop C-Bet" but fold nearly everything if u Barrel the Turn. 
Against this Villain, just fire again!

The later they give up the hand, the more profitable it is in the 
Long-Run for us!
Swings will be bigger though!
 
Just understand the math and the train of thought behind it! If you just 
got called down from the nuts on your very reasonable and thought-through
Triple-Barrel, just tell yourself you made a good play and you will gain 
in the long run! Math never is wrong!!!

A Word of Advice! Keep Your Face

advice
Well then GTFO Morpheus!!
It is key to mix it up! You rely on them to fold! Will they keep 
folding if you Raise 100% on the Button vs their Blinds? Maybe, but the 
other two examples are a little bit more obvious!
Will they keep folding those high % if you 3-Bet their CO- or 
Button-Opens all the time?
No!
Will they fold if you C-Bet 100% of the time? 
No! 
It is to ovbious and even the fishes in the pool will adjust towards that.
So keep your Face and mix it up or Auto-Profit won't be Auto-Profit 
anymore!

Another Tip:Open the Positional-Stats you have on your Oponnents. 
Some ppl have their routines for different Positions! For example their 
total "Fold-to-3-Bet%" Is high, but they just won't ever fold on the 
Button because they Over-Value Position!
It is also useful to use "vs-Hero-Stats" to see if they have already 
adjusted!

 

 

 

 


2 thoughts on “Simple Auto-Profit Spots to boost your Winrate

  1. This is really nice topic and pretty much declaration that tracking softwares will pay for themselves and from certain point they will just make profit. I can say that I made a lot (well Im still on micros aswell) moneys in spots where I wouldnt been able to win otherwise. Keeping eye on stats is really important. I also decreased number of tables to do it properly and learn it.

    Sad thing is that online poker rooms now debating about prohibiting 3rd party programs. Well hopefully we can enjoy them little longer. This is very helpful and nicely explained topic, good job! 🙂

    Like

  2. Thank you very much for your kind words. 🙂

    yeah, some rooms already got rid of them like party/bwins reg tables, but I doubt every room will get rid of them, they are just a fundamental part of online poker in general.

    we can also use auto-profit spots in live-games but it is way harder to figure out and it will always be some kind of “feeling oriented” steals. Simply because we dont have the exact numbers! :/

    Like

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